دراسة قياسية لأثر جائحة كورونا على الصادرات خارج المحروقات في الجزائر باستخدام VAR

An econometric study of the impact of the Corona pandemic on exports outside hydrocarbons in Algeria using VAR.

Abstract

The Corona epidemic has had great effects on global economies and on various economic sectors. Various recent studies have dealt with the causal relationship between the epidemic, mobility and transportation, and based on that we decided to study the long-term causal relationship between the covid-19 epidemic and exports outside hydrocarbons on the one hand and imports on the other hand;
By applying the VAR model by studying long-term causation and short-term causation to reveal the complementary causal relationship between non-hydrocarbon exports and the number of people infected with the COVID-19 epidemic and between the latter and imports, we found that there is a long-term causal relationship thanks to the Toda-Yamamoto test based on the number of corona infections and non-hydrocarbon exports and the lack of There is a causal relationship between COVID-19 with imports, and a short-run causal relationship from non-hydrocarbon exports and COVID-19 thanks to the Granger causality test.