أثر الشمول المالي على النمو الاقتصادي في دول شمال إفريقيا 2019- دراسة قياسية تحليلية للفترة 2004

The Impact Of Financial Inclusion On Economic Growth In The North Africa Contries An Empirical and Analytical Study During the Period 2004-2019

الملخص

This paper aims to measure and analyze the effect of the financial inclusion on the economic growth in
Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia,Egypt during the period(2004-2019). The econometric model used in this study is
the panel auto-regressive distributed lags model ( PANEL ARDL). The study uses the Principal Components
Analysis to determine the financial inclusion based on the Number of commercial bank branches and
Number of automated teller machines ATMs, per 1,000 km2; and the Number of commercial bank branches
and Number of automated teller machines ATMs, per 100.000 Adults ; the GDP to express economic
growth. The study also uses the variables of investment, population and exchange rate as the control
variables. The main finding of this research is the existence of long-term positive relation between the
Financial inclusion and the economic growth in the countries studied, where the probability was significant
less than 5%, as the change in the financial inclusion index by one point leads to a change in the economic
growth by 2.7 points. while, the test of causality in the short and long run demonstrated that there is no
causal relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth.