استخدام مخطط إيشيكاوا لتحليل الأسباب الجذرية لتذبذب إيرادات النفط في العراق للمدة (2014-2024)

Utilizing the Ishikawa Diagram for Analyzing the Root Causes of Oil Revenue Fluctuations in Iraq Over the Period (2014-2024)

Abstract

This study analyzes the root causes of oil revenue fluctuations in Iraq using the Ishikawa diagram. An analytical methodology combining qualitative and quantitative approaches was employed. The findings reveal that Iraq relies heavily on oil, which constitutes an average of 87.8% of total public revenues, making it vulnerable to severe shocks, such as the drop in oil prices to $33.4 per barrel in 2020. This reliance, coupled with 30% gas flaring and weak governance, exacerbates revenue volatility. The study underscores the economic significance of oil revenues as a driver of growth, provided they are managed efficiently. It concludes that addressing these challenges requires flexible fiscal policies, including financial stabilization funds, enhanced transparency through independent audits, and increased investment in non-oil sectors. Moreover, a long-term vision based on accurate data is essential for ensuring economic stability, while future research should assess the effectiveness of economic policies amid global changes.