أثر تقلبات سعر الصرف الرسمي والانفتاح الاقتصادي على التضخم والميزان التجاري في الجزائر مقارنة مع بعض الدول .PANEL NARDL و PANEL ARDL 2020 ) باستخدام نماذج - العربية خلال الفترة ( 1

The Impact of the Official Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Openness on Inflation and the Trade Balance in Algeria Compared to some Arab countries during the Period (1990-2020) using PANEL ARDL and PANEL NARDL Models.

Abstract

This study aims at knowing with application of standard modeling showing the impact of fluctuations in
the official exchange rate and economic openness on inflation and the trade balance in Algeria in
comparison with some Arab countries during the period (1990-2020), in order to explain the nature of the
economic relationship between the explanatory variables and the two dependent variables in Algeria, in
comparison with other Arab countries chosen in this study.
The assessment results concluded that there is a long-term relationship between the independent
variables; official exchange rate, and trade openness with the two dependent variables; the inflation rate
and the trade balance, also exchange rate fluctuations have a long-term inverse effect on the inflation rate,
while economic openness had a long-term positive effect on the inflation rate, and that positive exchange
rate changes have an inverse relationship with the trade balance in contrast to negative exchange rate
changes that had a direct long-term relationship with the trade balance in the group of Arab countries
included in study, and the effect was more severe in Egypt and Jordan in comparison with Bahrain, Algeria
and Saudi Arabia.